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Turkey has begun to receive natural gas from Turkmenistan via Iran under a swap agreement, Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar told the Anadolu news agency on March 2.
"We are currently bringing this gas to Turkey through Iran via a swap agreement," Bayraktar said, describing the development as "very valuable" for the country's energy security.
The announcement follows Bayraktar's earlier statement on February 28 that Turkmenistan's natural gas deliveries would commence on March 1.
He said the February 11 agreement between Turkey's state-owned BOTAŞ and Turkmenistan's Turkmengaz delivers gas at a competitive price.
"Turkmen gas helps reduce our overall natural gas costs," Bayraktar said. "We'll supply enough gas for about 1.5 million households this year."
The deal will provide up to 2 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas annually, marking a significant step in Turkey's strategy to diversify its energy imports and reduce reliance on Russian gas. However, the agreement's reliance on Iran's existing infrastructure as a transit country raises concerns about its long-term sustainability.
"Iran's role as a transit country introduces significant risks," said energy expert Ali Arif Aktürk, a former BOTAŞ executive.
"Since the 1996 Iran-Turkey gas deal, Iran has consistently failed to meet contracted volumes, particularly during winter months, due to capacity constraints and domestic demand," Aktürk said.
"With the Trump administration expected to ramp up sanctions and pressure on Iran -- especially after recent discussions between [US President Donald] Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu -- Turkey is taking steps to protect its energy supply," Aktürk said.
"The core reason for shifting the supplier of the 2 bcm per year from Iran's NIGC to Turkmenistan and arranging this swap deal is to shield that volume from US sanctions."
Since gas imports began on December 10, 2001, under the 1996 NIGC-BOTAŞ deal, Iran has been sourcing this gas from Turkmenistan and selling it to Turkey at inflated rates without meeting annual contract volumes.
Iran's ability to maintain consistent gas flows remains uncertain due to underinvestment and aging infrastructure, exacerbated by international sanctions.
In the past Tehran has halted gas supplies to Turkey during winter months, citing technical difficulties and domestic energy needs. These disruptions highlight the vulnerability of the new swap agreement.
The deal faces geopolitical challenges. The Trump administration is reportedly planning sanctions targeting Iran's energy sector, which could undermine the Turkmenistan-Turkey swap agreement. Even if Turkey applies for exemptions, the process is often lengthy and challenging, as seen in the 2010s when Turkey struggled to secure exemptions from US and UN sanctions.
Despite these risks, the agreement represents a step in Turkey's strategy to establish itself as a regional energy hub. Its reliance on Iran as a transit country introduces both technical and geopolitical uncertainties that could affect its long-term success.
Turkey is set to begin natural gas exports to Nakhchivan, Azerbaijan's autonomous enclave, this week.
The Iğdır-Nakhchivan pipeline, which has been fully completed, will facilitate this new export route. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Azerbaijani President İlham Aliyev will attend a ceremony marking the pipeline's inauguration.
"With the launch of this pipeline, Turkey is establishing another strategic energy link. Nakhchivan's natural gas needs will now be met through Turkey," Energy Minister Bayraktar said during a visit to Moscow.
This initiative follows Azerbaijan's efforts to ensure a stable gas supply to Nakhchivan after the liberation of the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The new pipeline connects with the Iğdır Natural Gas Pipeline in Turkey's easternmost province.