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Japan's 10-year government bond yield dipped to 1.08% - stepping back from a recent peak - as the Bank of Japan tactfully steps up its bond-buying efforts across all maturities.
What does this mean?
The Bank of Japan's ongoing bond purchases are quietly altering the bond market landscape. By buying bonds with maturities from one year to over 25 years, they've managed to ease pressures on yields. The 10-year yield eased back to 1.08%, while the 20-year yield also slipped a bit. Meanwhile, yields on two-year and 30-year bonds saw slight upticks, hinting at subtle market expectations about future monetary policy. This all unfolds amid rising core inflation, which has breached the BoJ's 2% target, and a weakening yen that's nudging the bank toward a potential rate hike. Overnight index swaps are even pointing to over a 50% chance of raising rates to 0.5% in December.
Investors are watching the BoJ closely, given the growing odds of an interest rate hike by year's end. Such a move could influence global financial flows, especially as Japan's economy shows resilience amid currency volatility.
The bigger picture: A tipping point in policy.
Japan's bond market maneuvers and inflation outlook reflect wider global economic patterns. Central banks everywhere are recalibrating policies to balance growth and inflation, and Japan might soon be playing a bigger role in this global shift.