Crude prices are extending recent gains this morning - albeit modestly - as geopolitical risk premia are rebuilding amid missiles flying in Russia, MidEast tensions continuing, and Biden seems set on WW3 as his legacy.

Last night's API report showed a larger than expected crude inventory build and traders are on the lookout for whether a contango market structure is here to stay after the WTI prompt spread dipped into negative territory this week for the first time since February, signaling near-term oversupply.

The official DOE data was very different from the API reported data with a small crude build and large gasoline build. This is the third straight weekly crude build and the biggest gasoline build since early September...

The Biden admin added 1.4mm barrels to the SPR last week - the biggest addition since August - making its the fifth straight week of total crude stocks rising...

US Crude production plunged by 200k b/d and does not look hurricane-related...

Oil investors are pricing in Trump's foreign policy approach as bearish. Of 10 traders surveyed by Bloomberg, eight said that Trump's proposals will limit price increases, with some suggesting a trade war with China will erode demand and potentially offset any new sanctions on Iran.