Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz introduces two new giant snowblowers, specially made Wasau SnoDozers, which have just been added to the Erie County snow clearing fleet.
A few weeks ago I wrote my piece about the "early spring" critters who garnered the usual gaggle of press coverage.
It turns out the cold extended range outlook I gave in that article was understated. A few nights ago, a viewer wrote, "Is this winter's last stand?" I was uncommonly terse. I answered, "No."
There certainly was no sign of a winter abatement on Friday morning. Low temperatures were again in the single digits and teens - with many significant new coatings of snow since Thursday, some of it synoptic, and some of it lake effect.
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Buffalo's official seasonal snow total was approaching 75 inches as of Thursday night, close to average after a previous season-long deficit. After January turned out to be the first colder than average month since November 2023, February appears to be on track to be the second consecutive such month. No, we're not breaking records with this persistent cold, but its persistence alone has been the exception during the last several years. Just looking at the two previous winters, despite the deadly Christmas weekend blizzard of 2022 and last winter's one very harsh week in January, mean temperatures for the cold weather season were well above average both for 2022-23 and 2023-24.
Almost needless to say, this harsh cold has brought climate change denialists out of the woodwork. However, it must be noted that the cold in much of the U.S. has been a standout anomaly amidst ongoing global warming, still in progress, seen in this NASA data.
Don Paul: Atmospheric brutality digs in its heels, but distant modest relief is on the horizon
The biggest weather impact during Monday and Tuesday will be the combination of very cold temperatures with a gusty wind, producing potentially dangerous wind-chill values.
Having gotten these statistics out of the way, some relief is still in the forecast. But, as I said on television Monday and Tuesday, the relief is coming on a temporary basis. Some moderation will begin during the weekend, but a stiff southwest wind Saturday and a brisk breeze Sunday will be taking the edge off any discernible warming for walkers and skiers. Sunday's above freezing low-to-mid 30s should even begin some shrinkage in the impressive snow pack (see last column on the right), both through melting and a process known as sublimation, by which snow can convert directly to water vapor from its frozen state. The brisk southwest wind is evident in the spacing and alignment of the isobars around the ridge of high pressure. Such a wind is favorable for sublimation.
On Monday, the warming will be hard not to notice. A gusty south-southwest wind coming around the bottom of a deep low pressure system well to our north will give readings a bigger boost.
There may be a few brief passing rain and wet snow showers, but with a high reaching the low 40s, nothing will be sticking.
Some more rain showers are likely on a mild and less windy Tuesday, with a high again approaching 40.
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The above average trend continues for Wednesday, with a weak high pressure ridge bringing upper 30s under a partly to mostly cloudy sky.
Something of a shakeup arrives Thursday, with a more vigorous low pressure system crossing the region. While temperatures will remain seasonably mild ahead of the low early in the day, its proximity will bring a better chance of more numerous showers, which will begin to mix with or change to snow after the low passes off to the east.
In the wake of the low, a colder wraparound flow will filter in falling temperatures in the afternoon.
By Friday, we'll be back into below average temperatures, though most guidance does not yet take us into the deep freeze we've experienced this past week.
As a sidebar, however, one recent run of the European/ECMWF model does indicate much colder air than these readings, and may bear watching.
Looking further ahead, most of the ensemble means (many multiple model runs, giving a better sampling than a single run) keep our readings somewhat below average next weekend, edging up toward average the first part of the following week. Following that, toward the end of the first week of March, there are renewed hints of sharper cooling in a dominant northwest flow beneath the polar vortex. In this currently depicted alignment, that next batch of cold would not match the depths of the current cold, though such a pattern could still amplify as we draw nearer to the time period.
It should be remembered that such patterns tend to look flatter in amplitude two weeks in advance because of the greater spread between the model members making up the mean so far in advance. https://psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/spag_f264_usbg.gif
Looking at the smoothed means so far out in time doesn't describe the wide spread between the many ensemble members.
It is apparent that the Climate Prediction Center has taken into account this member spread in depicting its 8-14 day outlook.
CPC has kept confidence in this colder pattern at 50-60%. Confidence was higher in advance of this most recent cold outbreak.
Poking the statistical climate bear
From Climate Central, official data shows Buffalo's number of freezing nights has sharply declined since 1970. No, this does not include this winter, since the data cutoff was necessarily 2024, as this winter's statistics are not yet tabulated.
This cold season in the last 54-55 seasons would hardly move the needle. It is just a reminder that however much we're all shivering this winter in much of the U.S., global warming is ongoing over most of the Northern Hemisphere (as shown earlier). This more anomalous winter follows the 2 warmest years on global record, and Buffalo's warmest year, 2024. I admit this strikes a counterintuitive note while you're shivering, but the big picture has not changed.
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