The playoff-clinching scenario for the Los Angeles Chargers is as simple as possible this week: If they win at the New England Patriots on Saturday, they are in.
The Chargers would improve to 10-6 with a win. The three teams outside of playoff contention that remain in the hunt all have eight losses -- the Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals. As such, those three cannot get to 10 wins.
According to The Athletic's model, the Chargers have a 94 percent chance of making the postseason. Earning a berth is close to a formality at this point, considering the Chargers need only one win and have two of the worst teams in the league remaining on their schedule in the 3-12 Patriots and 3-12 Las Vegas Raiders.
What is more interesting, at this stage, is what seed the Chargers claim. That will decide their opponent in the opening round of the playoffs -- and what kind of chances they have at winning a playoff game for the first time since 2018.
The AFC playoff seeding remains fluid, and the Chargers could face any of five teams in the opening round: the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens or Houston Texans. The only current AFC playoff team the Chargers will definitely not face is the Denver Broncos. The Chiefs won the AFC West, and so if the Broncos make the playoffs, they will be a wild-card team, like the Chargers. If the Chiefs win either of their final two games -- Christmas Day against the Steelers or Week 18 against the Broncos -- they would clinch the No. 1 seed and first-round bye and thus also not be a potential wild-match matchup.
Here is how I would rank those five potential opponents, from the best matchup for the Chargers to the worst matchup.
The Chargers would not have to deal with the elements if they play in Houston in the wild-card round. NRG Stadium, home of the Texans, has a retractable roof. Even though Jim Harbaugh called Justin Herbert "weatherproof" earlier this season, not having to play in an outdoor environment will be an advantage in comparison to the other options. The other teams all play in outdoor stadiums in cold-weather cities.
Beyond that, the Texans had the worst offense of the potential opponents by expected points added per play through 16 weeks, according to TruMedia. They struggle to run the ball, ranking 30th in EPA per designed rush. And their passing game took another hit Saturday when receiver Tank Dell suffered a season-ending knee injury. Receiver Stefon Diggs also suffered a torn ACL in October. The Texans do have one of the league's best defenses. But I could see the Chargers having their best shot at victory against the Texans, in a low-scoring defensive game.
A matchup with the Steelers would mean the Chargers head to Pittsburgh for the second time this season. They lost to the Steelers 20-10 in Week 3. Both teams have changed quite a bit since that game. Rashawn Slater suffered a pectoral injury in that Week 3 loss and missed most of the second half. Herbert was virtually playing on one leg as he battled a right high ankle sprain, and Herbert did not finish the game. He was knocked out in the third quarter. Justin Fields was the Steelers' quarterback and Russell Wilson has since taken over the starting job. Pittsburgh is one of the toughest places to win in the league. And that is certainly the case in January. But I think the Steelers present less of a challenge than the remaining teams, especially offensively. The Steelers ranked 21st in EPA per play on offense through 16 weeks, according to TruMedia.
The Chargers played the Chiefs tough in both their games this season. They jumped out to a 10-0 lead in Week 4. They did not trail in that game until late in the fourth quarter, when Patrick Mahomes led a go-ahead touchdown drive. In Week 14, they led with 4:35 left to play in regulation. Mahomes led another winning drive. The Chiefs are beatable, though -- even in Kansas City in January. The Chargers proved that in the first two matchups. Despite having the best record in football, the Chiefs rank ninth in point differential. I can assure you the Chargers want a third shot at the Chiefs. In both games, the Chargers just did not make the plays they needed to down the stretch, but the opportunities were there.
The Chargers hosted the Ravens in Week 12 and lost 30-23. It was a close game, and the Chargers had the ball with a chance to tie in the fourth quarter. Quentin Johnston had a third-down drop that flipped the game. The issues were deeper than just one drop, though. The Chargers did not defend the run well, and running back Derrick Henry finished with 140 yards on 24 carries. The Chargers were solid against the run through the first half of the season. But they have been less consistent in that phase down the stretch. From weeks 11 through 16, the Chargers ranked 26th in defensive rushing success rate, according to TruMedia. They were 11th through the first 10 games of the season. Facing Henry in a playoff game is not an ideal matchup with how the Chargers have been playing the run -- and that is before even factoring in an MVP candidate in quarterback Lamar Jackson. The Ravens have also stabilized defensively after a rough start to the season. From week 13 to 16, they ranked sixth in defensive EPA per play.
The average low temperature in Buffalo in January is 20 degrees. There could be a chance of debilitating snow. And, oh yeah, the Bills have the best player in football right now in Josh Allen. This would be the biggest challenge of them all, in my opinion.